A week ago last Sunday I ran the Tortoise & Hare 12K race put on by FCRC. These handicap start races are fun as they give us all, but especially those improving in speed, a chance at a top finish. I've finished in the points (top 10, but remember the handicap start) the last 2 races and hoped to do so again as I felt confident I could significantly beat Nick's predicted time of nearly 1:08. Nick's predictions are at a disadvantage by having to include my slow 5K (including a missed turn) last November. I felt a 1:03-ish time was in reach. I ran 1:03:56 last year. Of course when I made that 1:03ish prediction I wasn't factoring in having ran the Trudge the day before.
I was a tad late getting to the park due to a road closure and detour so I didn't have a long time to warm up, but did manage to get in about 8 minutes of strides and such to loosen the legs a bit. I would have preferred more, but you take what you can get. For race strategy I took a page from Pete and I went out with the dash and crash mentality, knowing, and ignoring, that the out was net downhill and the back was thus net uphill. I felt good from the gun and ran 7:57, 8:11, 8:15, and 8:20 pace (.75 miles) for a total of
30:38 on the way out. The uphill back portion I ran in 8:24, 8:30, 8:41, and 8:38 pace (.75
miles) for 32:37 back, 1:03:15 overall. Most of what kept me going on the back was knowing that Ean wasn't far behind me. I passed her on the out and feared that a too fast early pace would bite me in the end of the race. Though I slowed nearly every mile along the way I think overall I'm happy with that performance. I was tiring but never blew up. I was surprised to find I finished 5th overall, netting some points and putting myself solidly in the middle of a tight group vying for 2nd through about 7th place in the T&H series. Top 5 win money. Knowing this I'm getting excited for the 5K next month. Nick should have me predicted at about 25:45, I know I can beat that.
This 12K and the 8K from last month have me right on the edge of what would predict a sub-4 marathon, which side of the edge depends on which prediction formulas you use. I've also had some encouraging track workouts, doing 3x1600 the week before the 12K all around 7:30 pace and did 7x800 (Yasso lite) in times that ranged from 3:42 to 3:57 last week. Those times put me in the realm of the 4 hour marathon. It seems I have more confidence when running the short stuff, running out on the roads for longer runs that 9:07 pace seems awful fast. I think I'm going to do some marathon pace work down the canyon with Marie and hope that it will build confidence. If I can do that, bang out a 7:20 PDM in a couple weeks and shave a couple minutes off my current Towers time I think I'll be ready.
Nice work! I don't think you'll have any trouble going sub 4 at COM. All of your long days on the trails, Moab 55k, and trudging volume gives you a huge endurance advantage. The marathon pace formulas assume a normal road training volume.
ReplyDeleteIf your short distance splits are in line with your goal, then you'll probably run on pace for most of the race but after mile 20, you'll be passing people left and right while everyone else bonks and hits the wall.